How will Arsène Wenger spend his money?

In the wake of Arsenal‘s euphoric 3-1 aggregate victory over Udinese, manager Arsène Wenger now faces the equally testing challenge of signing reinforcements for a squad which has seen more outgoings than incomings this summer. With a transfer fund at his disposal which reports put at anywhere between £65m (mildly pessimistic) and £100m (wildly optimistic), the usually parsimonious Wenger has an unprecedented opportunity to add revamp his side in one fell swoop. But how many players should he buy, and where should he seek to strengthen?

It has been a summer of turmoil at the Emirates like no other in recent history. Arsenal fans are accustomed to off-season transfer sagas revolving around their top players – before Cesc Fàbregas and Samir Nasri there was Juventus’s pursuit of Patrick Vieira, Barcelona’s wooing of Thierry Henry and the malcontent mercenary that is Emmanuel Adebayor. But never have Wenger’s decisions been scrutinised – and criticised – so vociferously, and never before has there been such a revolving door of player movements. Over the course of the summer the squad has been stripped of both quality (Fàbregas, Nasri, Gaël Clichy) and depth (Emmanuel Eboué, Jay Emmanuel-Thomas and loanees Denilson, Carlos Vela and Kyle Bartley). And of Wenger’s four signings to date, two – winger Gervinho and right back Carl Jenkinson – have already been blooded, with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joel Campbell sure to see action (at least in the Carling Cup) sooner rather than later.

But with a sackful of money (potential sellers will be rubbing their hands together with glee) and just one week to spend it (ditto), Wenger is unlikely to flood his dressing room with a rush of new names which will take time to integrate and will hinder the progress of up-and-coming youngsters such as Emmanuel Frimpong. So what can we realistically expect from him before the transfer window closes next Wednesday?

Goalkeeper

Almunia's days at the club appear numbered (image courtesy of arsenal.com)

At the end of last season many pundits identified this as a key area of need. Manuel Almunia may well be at the front of the queue for the exit, but with Wojciech Szczęsny growing in stature and exuding confidence and Łukasz Fabiański a capable and experienced backup, Arsenal appear more settled in their last line of defence than at any time since Jens Lehmann’s peak years. Szczęsny will commit errors from time to time – we should not expect perfection from such a young keeper – but has already demonstrated the talent and the mindset necessary to shrug off any setbacks.

It is difficult to see Fabiański settling for warming the bench behind his younger compatriot beyond this season – as an international with 18 caps he will surely need first team football somewhere – but that is a problem for next year, not this one.

Verdict: No activity, other than Almunia returning to Spain.

Defence

Cahill has been a long-term target for Arsenal

Injuries and the development of young players mask the fact that the nucleus of a good group already exists. On the flanks, Carl Jenkinson already looks to be a capable deputy for Bacary Sagna, while it is unlikely that Wenger will seek further cover for the injury-prone Kieran Gibbs beyond Armand Traoré.

Any new defensive signing will be a central player of substance, although whether this will be a ready-made partner for Thomas Vermaelen or a capable backup to enhance bench strength – which is currently provided by the brittle and inconsistent Johan Djourou, the seeimgly out-of-favour Sébastien Squillaci and youngster Ignasi Miquel – is less clear. We’ve all heard the links to Gary Cahill and Phil Jagielka – my preference would be for the former, who is 25 rather than 29 – but Scott Dann or Christopher Samba are also distinct possibilities who would bring both a physical presence and valuable Premier League experience.

Verdict: Expect one arrival, but it may be a squad player rather than a starter.

Central midfield

Yann M'Vila (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

There are two distinct needs here – a holding player and a creative one. In the holding role, Arsenal have been closely linked to Rennes’ 21-year old Yann M’Vila in recent days. Six foot tall and physically imposing, he could provide steel to a midfield which has too often been lightweight in recent years. Rather than being a replacement for Alex Song, I would see him forming half of a midfield anchor pairing with Song (or Emmanuel Frimpong when the Cameroon international is called away to the Africa Cup of Nations), with Jack Wilshere taking the creative role in front of them.

In Wilshere’s absence Aaron Ramsey has appeared ill at ease being used as the creative fulcrum of the side. Tomáš Rosický or Andrey Arshavin could also fill in, although neither is ideal. Some genuine quality here would be most welcome – although it appears that an enquiry to Lille about Eden Hazard has been firmly rebuffed – but my suspicion is that Wenger will hope that Wilshere can stay fit and make do with what he already has when he is not.

Verdict: Wenger will strengthen one or the other, but probably not both. With a better defensive screen vital, I would focus on M’Vila to ensure depth in the critical holding role(s).

Wide midfield/attack

Will Lille be willing to sell Hazard as well as Gervinho? (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

One of the reasons I think Wenger may pass on adding another creative central option is my perception that he is placing a greater emphasis on creating chances from wide positions this season. He already has the fitfully brilliant Theo Walcott and Gervinho has already shown signs of settling in immediately. Rosický and Arshavin can provide plenty of experience off the bench (as can the perenially injured Abou Diaby), while Ryo Miyaichi and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are more youthful and pacy alternatives. Gervinho’s former teammate Eden Hazard would be an ideal fit as he can play both centrally and out wide but, having already lost the Ivorian, Lille are understandably reluctant to sell so late in the window.

With early summer target Juan Mata now at Chelsea, I suspect Wenger is happy to stay with the balance of experience and youth he already has – although, like Song, he will lose Gervinho for the duration of the Africa Cup of Nations – with depth not a major issue here.

Verdict: Possible but unlikely, unless a star name becomes available. Well-stocked with both youth and experience.

Centre forward

Zárate has been linked with Arsenal, but would he add much to the squad?

Although new captain Robin van Persie is nothing short of world-class when fit and on form, he has never made more than 28 league appearances in a single season for Arsenal, and has played fewer than half the games in two of the past four years. With Nicklas Bendtner agitating for a move and Marouane Chamakh bereft of goals and confidence, an injury to the skipper could leave Arsenal dangerously short of a central striker who can lead the line effectively. Walcott, for all his pace and goalscoring ability, is not that kind of player, and neither is the on-loan Carlos Vela.

Recent reports have linked Arsenal with a move for 24-year old Lazio and Argentina striker Mauro Zárate, who had an undistinguished load spell at Birmingham three years ago. At just 5-foot-9 and with a record of less than a goal every four games for Lazio, he is not an obvious solution for the problem. One obvious candidate who is, however, will never return to the club he left in acrimonious circumstances two years ago: Emmanuel Adebayor, who is currently surplus to requirements at Manchester City and seems most likely to move to Tottenham if he stays in the Premier League. Wenger may choose to stick with what he has, hoping that either Bendtner stays for another year or Chamakh regains his form, and relying on Walcott, Gervinho or Joel Campbell in the event of injuries.

Verdict: Essential if Bendtner departs, otherwise only a nice-to-have third priority after a defender and a midfielder, with a purchase only taking place if it is for a top-class finisher.

Of course, there is no knowing for sure what the team will look like on September 1st, but here’s my view of the likely starting XI, based on my own assumption that Arsenal will sign Cahill and M’Vila.

Szczęsny

Sagna – Cahill – Vermaelen – Gibbs

Song – M’Vila

Wilshere

Gervinho – van Persie – Walcott

With a Carling Cup/second XI of:

Fabiański

Jenkinson – Djourou/Miquel – Koscielny/Squillaci – Traoré

Frimpong/Eastmond – Ramsey

Rosický/Diaby

Oxlade-Chamberlain/Campbell – Bendtner/Chamakh – Arshavin/Miyaichi

Of course, I would love it if the club were able to add more than just those two players, but Wenger’s belief in his squad and the limited timescales make a last-minute spree unlikely – although I would not be surprised if he picked up a couple of handy squad players to improve cover in key positions. Anything less than two more signings will be a major disappointment. However, if Arsène wants to break open the piggy bank to throw Eden Hazard and one or two others into the mix as well, I won’t complain.

Hold on to your hats – it’s going to be an interesting week.

The week in numbers: w/e 26/12/10

Lionel Messi - 42 goals in 2010 (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

42 – As La Liga heads into its winter break, Barcelona‘s Lionel Messi finished calendar year 2010 with more goals (42), assists (15) and completed dribbles (166) than any other player.

29 – Messi has scored 29 goals in 28 games in all competitions (including internationals) so far this season. Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 27 in 28.

8 – Balls required by Tim Southee to claim five wickets – including a hat-trick – in New Zealand‘s Twenty20 win over Pakistan on Boxing Day. It is the first time a New Zealand bowler has taken five wickets in a match in the 20-over format.

21 – Wales international Gavin Henson returned to rugby after an absence of 21 months to help Saracens defeat Wasps 13-6 at Wembley.

The Ashes in numbers

98 – Australia recorded their lowest ever score against England at the MCG as they were skittled out for 98 by England on the opening day of the fourth Test in Melbourne.

Matt Prior - six catches in Australia's first innings

10 – All ten Australian wickets fells to catches behind the wicket, with England keeper Matt Prior claiming six of them.

10 – Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook recorded their tenth century stand as an opening pair – only Jack Hobbs and Herbert Sutcliffe have exceeded that number for England.

577 – Cook’s 82 moved him to a series-leading 577 runs, which he has accumulated in just six innings.

158 – The unbeaten stand of 158 between Prior and Jonathan Trott was England’s largest sixth-wicket stand at Melbourne, surpassing the previous best of 140 set in 1929.

11 – There hasn’t been a draw between England and Australia at the MCG in their last 11 meetings there. Australia have won seven to England’s four.

The Premier League week in numbers

4 – Everton‘s 2-1 win at Manchester City last Monday night was their fourth successive away win against these opponents.

25 – City had 25 attempts on goal against Everton, but scored only via a Phil Jagielka own goal.

Carlton Cole - two goals at Fulham

2 – Carlton Cole scored twice in West Ham‘s 3-1 win at Fulham. It was the first time he has ever scored more than one goal in a single Premier League game.

5 – Cole has now also scored in each of his last five Premier League starts against Fulham.

14 – Sunderland‘s 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford means that former Manchester United player Steve Bruce has failed to beat his old club in each of his 14 attempts as a manager (two draws, 12 defeats).

8 – Manchester United have now won their last eight Boxing Day games (and 16 of the last 17).

Andy Carroll - five headed goals, all assisted by Joey Barton

5 – Newcastle‘s Andy Carroll has scored five headed goals in the Premier League – Joey Barton has provided the assist for each of them.

10 – Stoke‘s 2-0 win at Blackburn was their first Boxing Day win for 10 years.

0 – Aston Villa have not won any points from a game where they have been behind. They fell behind 2-0 at home to ten-man Tottenham before finally losing 2-1.

17 – Tottenham have now gone 17 matches – since the opening day of the season – without keeping a clean sheet in the Premier League.

The NFL week in numbers

14 – Devin Hester scored on a 64-yard, third quarter punt return as the Chicago Bears thumped Minnesota 40-14 in a freezing Monday night game. It was Hester’s 14th career return touchdown, setting a new NFL record. He also scored on a 15-yard reception in the second quarter.

Tom Brady - 319 passes without interception (image courtesy of Keith Allison)

319 – Passes thrown by New England‘s Tom Brady without an interception, breaking the previous high of 308 set across the 1990 and 1991 seasons by Bernie Kosar. The Patriots beat Buffalo 34-3. In his last 10 games, Brady has passed for 24 touchdowns and no interceptions.

15 – The Patriots have now won 15 straight games against the Bills.

38 – Chicago scored 38-plus points in back-to-back games for first time since 1989, as they beat the New York Jets 38-34.

3 – The Washington Redskins defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17 in overtime. It was the Redskins’ third overtime win this season (they are 3-1), which tied them for the NFL single-season record.

2 – The Detroit Lions won 34-27 in Miami. Having snapped an NFL record 26-game road losing streak last week, they have now won back-to-back road games.

(Some statistics courtesy of Opta Sports, The Times, @StatManJon, and NFL.com.)